A bit of a diversion today. I have been distracted by the cricket recently; what with the paucity of racing and all. I thought I would build a model for test cricket and see if it could accurately predict the innings scores in the second Ashes Test at Adelaide. It has been moderately successful, helping me to place successful bets on the total 1st innings scores for both Australia and England. I also backed England from the start, having see marginal value in the England price and, whilst I may well still lose that bet, I am comfortable with the predictions the model made.
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Betting on the Weather
Betfair Chase Trainer Form
I was browsing through the trainer indices for tomorrow’s Betfair Chase and thought I would share some of the results. After that, I promise I shall watch the Morning Line and find some more lazy clichés to investigate.
Figure 1: Nigel Twiston-Davies’ recent form
Today’s Trainers
A quick look at the form index for selected trainers. Bryan Smart stuck in a winner yesterday, continuing his mini-revival in form, but Jennie Candlish’s only remaining runner was disappointing yesterday and her inclusion in the “In form” trainers in the Racing Post should continue to be taken with a pinch of salt. On the other hand, Walter Swinburn has shown consistently good form for a while now and has an impressive 21 places and nine winners in his last 50 runners.
Figure 1: Walter Swinburn’s last 50 runs
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A New Indicator
Before returning to examine some of the less considered claims and clichés in the racing press, I want to introduce a new indicator that I have been working on. One of the reasons that I went so long without posting was that I was hard at work building up a racing form database. I am well on the way to completing that project now and am starting to be able to generate some useful output. One of the objectives was to integrate some Betfair Starting Price data into the form. Naturally, I have my own bias towards Betfair data overall, but there are good reasons why this data is a very important aid in studying form. You will recall from my previous articles that I have often looked at expected wins (and places) as a measure of how a group of horses has performed over a period. This has been useful to look at trainer and jockey form as well as a number of other dimensions.
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Kempton Draw Bias
Lovable cockney rogue, Mark Winstanley, has a betting approach about as far removed from mine as it is possible to be. To be honest, I am not really sure I know what his betting approach is but his column usually makes entertaining reading. Today, he does make one good point about the draw bias at Goodwood when making the case for Dubai Affair over the four horses that finished significantly ahead of him. Dubai Affair was drawn one of 13 that day and the principals were all drawn high, suggesting that Dubai Affair should get closer this time. However, I am less convinced by his assessment of the Kempton draw, when stating that…
“With a dozen youngsters hurtling around a right-handed bend, those poor creatures drawn high are behind the eight ball before the gates spring open”
The Kempton draw bias has emerged as one of the biggest in UK racing since the redevelopment of the track in 2006. The Couch’s reading of the merit of being drawn high flies in the face of the received wisdom. A look at Adrian Massey’s assessment suggests that Mr Winstanley is wide of the mark, but I think the comments warrant further analysis, particularly in reference to the suggestion that it may be somehow different for juveniles.
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Favourites on Softer Going
I returned from holiday late in the week and am now beginning to get back on top of the races I have missed. To be honest, listening to the Morning Line this morning did not help a great deal in that regard, but it did throw up an interesting question which I have been meaning to research for a while now. Barry Dennis Bismarked Bated Breath in the 3.20 at Newmarket today and finished his summary with the line…
“Bookmakers love being against horses in heavy ground.”
Ignoring for the moment the fact that the ground at Newmarket is not heavy, but soft, it does seem a good opportunity to examine the widely held belief that the market is a poorer predictor of results as the ground gets softer.
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Coming on for a Run
First let me apologise for not living up to my promise in the last article. I have been suddenly inundated with work and things are not improving in the next couple of weeks when I will be away on holiday with my family. However, I have managed to produce some interesting figures on the way trainers campaign their horses in the early part of their career (the horses’ career not the trainers’…).
It always amuses me to hear commentators trot out the tired old line about trainers who get horses to improve from their debut. As ever, with clichés the statement is made with no supporting evidence and normally just a supposition from the speaker. We are told that a trainer always brings horses on for a run and that the fact that this horse has run so well first time out is a positive sign and that the horse is undoubtedly worth following next time up. Google a phrase such as “always improve for the run” and the list of trainers you get includes:
Chris Wall
Ferdy Murphy
Brian Meehan (many times)
John Dunlop
Mark Johnston
Tom Dascombe
Aidan O’Brien
Jim Goldie
Amanda Perrett
Luca Cumani
Ed Dunlop
Emma Lavelle
Bryan Smart
Jamie Osbourne
Michael Jarvis
Richard Hannon (particularly prevalent this year)
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Trainer Ratings
I have been looking at ways to assess the performance of trainers and assess to what extent a trainer can be said to be ‘in-form’ or ‘out-of-form’. I thought it best to start with a simlar approach to the jockey ratings that I published a few weeks ago. Recall that I took the consistency for all jockeys based on their rides in 2009. I think the same approach is applicable to trainers, with some caveats.
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Nursery Update
Tomorrow night’s Redcar nurseries are almost upon us and I feel obliged to publish a quick update to Tuesday’s analysis and a brief preview of the nurseries themselves.
Redcar 6:40
Roodee Queen (value at 5.5 or better) (Non Runner)
Mappin Time (now 7.0 or better from 8.8 or better)
Add => Sacrosanctus (7.6 or better)
Redcar 7:45
Puddle Duck (4.5 or better)
Madam Markievicz (4.5 or better)
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