23 Aug 2010 at 12:55
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Lovable cockney rogue, Mark Winstanley, has a betting approach about as far removed from mine as it is possible to be. To be honest, I am not really sure I know what his betting approach is but his column usually makes entertaining reading. Today, he does make one good point about the draw bias at Goodwood when making the case for Dubai Affair over the four horses that finished significantly ahead of him. Dubai Affair was drawn one of 13 that day and the principals were all drawn high, suggesting that Dubai Affair should get closer this time. However, I am less convinced by his assessment of the Kempton draw, when stating that…
“With a dozen youngsters hurtling around a right-handed bend, those poor creatures drawn high are behind the eight ball before the gates spring open”
The Kempton draw bias has emerged as one of the biggest in UK racing since the redevelopment of the track in 2006. The Couch’s reading of the merit of being drawn high flies in the face of the received wisdom. A look at Adrian Massey’s assessment suggests that Mr Winstanley is wide of the mark, but I think the comments warrant further analysis, particularly in reference to the suggestion that it may be somehow different for juveniles.
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14 Aug 2010 at 14:34
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I returned from holiday late in the week and am now beginning to get back on top of the races I have missed. To be honest, listening to the Morning Line this morning did not help a great deal in that regard, but it did throw up an interesting question which I have been meaning to research for a while now. Barry Dennis Bismarked Bated Breath in the 3.20 at Newmarket today and finished his summary with the line…
“Bookmakers love being against horses in heavy ground.”
Ignoring for the moment the fact that the ground at Newmarket is not heavy, but soft, it does seem a good opportunity to examine the widely held belief that the market is a poorer predictor of results as the ground gets softer.
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27 Jul 2010 at 16:01
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First let me apologise for not living up to my promise in the last article. I have been suddenly inundated with work and things are not improving in the next couple of weeks when I will be away on holiday with my family. However, I have managed to produce some interesting figures on the way trainers campaign their horses in the early part of their career (the horses’ career not the trainers’…).
It always amuses me to hear commentators trot out the tired old line about trainers who get horses to improve from their debut. As ever, with clichés the statement is made with no supporting evidence and normally just a supposition from the speaker. We are told that a trainer always brings horses on for a run and that the fact that this horse has run so well first time out is a positive sign and that the horse is undoubtedly worth following next time up. Google a phrase such as “always improve for the run” and the list of trainers you get includes:
Chris Wall
Ferdy Murphy
Brian Meehan (many times)
John Dunlop
Mark Johnston
Tom Dascombe
Aidan O’Brien
Jim Goldie
Amanda Perrett
Luca Cumani
Ed Dunlop
Emma Lavelle
Bryan Smart
Jamie Osbourne
Michael Jarvis
Richard Hannon (particularly prevalent this year)
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09 Jul 2010 at 16:11
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I have been looking at ways to assess the performance of trainers and assess to what extent a trainer can be said to be ‘in-form’ or ‘out-of-form’. I thought it best to start with a simlar approach to the jockey ratings that I published a few weeks ago. Recall that I took the consistency for all jockeys based on their rides in 2009. I think the same approach is applicable to trainers, with some caveats.
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30 Jun 2010 at 19:55
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Tomorrow night’s Redcar nurseries are almost upon us and I feel obliged to publish a quick update to Tuesday’s analysis and a brief preview of the nurseries themselves.
Redcar 6:40
Roodee Queen (value at 5.5 or better) (Non Runner)
Mappin Time (now 7.0 or better from 8.8 or better)
Add => Sacrosanctus (7.6 or better)
Redcar 7:45
Puddle Duck (4.5 or better)
Madam Markievicz (4.5 or better)
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28 Jun 2010 at 11:14
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For a follower of two-year-olds, the beginning of July heralds a new chapter in the season. The nursery handicaps begin and the chance to pit your wits against the handicapper has arrived. Many think that betting two-year-olds is dangerous and fraught with difficulty as there is so little evidence to go on. This is precisely the reason I enjoy it. I believe that there are easier profits to be made interpreting limited data quickly rather than endlessly analysing vast amounts of data available for sprint handicappers for example. For a big sprint handicap, most of the runners are well-exposed and their preferences are known. Extensive form study may help, but there are large swathes of others doing similar analysis and it becomes a war of attrition. I find two-year-old form easier to analyse (as there is less of it) and less competitive. It is easy to draw erroneous conclusions from a single run. A two-year-old wins first time up on soft ground and then finishes fourth on firm it will be declared a soft ground specialist, ignoring the fact that the second run might be the better of the two. If a horse wins a small maiden by six lengths comfortably, many will think it better than a horse who gets beaten in a better conditions race. From such assumptions are profits to be made.
Returning to nurseries specifically, there is one age-old cliché that will be trotted out on TV and in print over the next three to four weeks.
“Always back the top-weight in nurseries”
I think we will award a Sceptical Punter prize for the first one to trot it out. Some apply it to only early season nurseries and some use it from now until the end of the season. However, not all clichés are wrong and this one is easily analysed.
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24 Jun 2010 at 16:35
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Unfortunately, I was not able to complete this analysis before Royal Ascot, which renders this decidedly less useful than it might have been, but having completed the majority of the analysis, it made sense to complete and publish it. After all, there is plenty of racing still to come at Ascot in 2010. Let’s remind ourselves of the oft-quoted theory.
“the new Ascot is a course which suits Polytrack horses”
I can’t find a specific attribution for the quote, but I am sure I would have been able to had I watched the coverage on TV as opposed to actually being there. As I mentioned in one of my Ascot updates, my initial thought was that there might have been some support for the theory in the figures, but I am afraid to report that I was mistaken. I really should know better than to prematurely report half-finished analysis. The initial analysis I did showed that horses who had ran well at Ascot tended to run closer to form on the all-weather than they did on turf courses. However, the same is true of horses who ran badly at Ascot so the data really was meaningless.
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21 Jun 2010 at 09:39
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I said after Cheltenham that it always pays to review your performance and it is particularly gratifying to do so after a successful week. I gave 12 selections in six races and managed to find the winner of three of them. Including the three winners, seven of the twelve finished in the first three, leaving only five finishing out of the places. Two of the winners actually started shorter than my value price, but were freely available at a bigger price in the morning, so I am justified in including them. That on it own seems like a good success rate, but the key is whether I am beating what chance dictates, so let’s take a closer look at the results.
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19 Jun 2010 at 07:54
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Aidan O’Brien belatedly notched his first winner of the meeting when Lillie Langtry landed the feature race in good style from Gile Na Greine. The O’Brien bandwagon continued to gather momentum when Mikhail Glinka got up in the shadow of the post in the Queen’s Vase. In the first race today, which is the closest thing we will see to a Queen’s Vase for two-year-olds, the Ballydoyle team have a very strong hand in Jackaroo (backable at 4.2 or better) and Eskimo (7.92), both of whom have put up decent performances on the clock over today’s seven furlong trip. At current prices, Eskimo is the better bet today, but should the requisite price be available later then a cover on Jackaroo could be considered. The home team is headed by Clive Brittain’s Zaidan (5.1), who is open to considerable improvement but has to step up considerably in distance. Clarke Lane (16.8) is the other horse who warrants a mention at a bigger price. He put up a decent time first up before chasing home the talented Galtymore Lad at Pontefract.
2:30 Ascot Chesham Stakes
Eskimo (7.9 or better)
Zaidan (5.1 or better)
17 Jun 2010 at 22:14
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I don’t think I need to detain you long today. Thursday was another fabulous day at Ascot brightened up by the marvellous victory of Dermot Weld’s dual purpose Rite Of Passage in the Gold Cup. I can’t claim any personal success there, but it was a fine, battling performance and one which gives the trainer a fascinating horse to campaign. However, he could hardly be further from the world of two-year-olds and my main betting interest. Sadly, my tipping has steadily deteriorated as the week has gone on, with only one of the suggestions finding a place on Thursday. To be entirely honest, the Albany would be my least favourite juvenile race of the meeting, so I could not be more that hopeful that my record will improve on Friday. Anyway, here it is.
2:30 Ascot Albany Stakes
Al Sharood (10.0 or better to win, 3.2 or better to place)
The favourite, Radharcnafarraige follows Jim Bolger’s Cuis Ghaire who won it two years’ ago and is the only group winner in the field, but the form does not look strong. The time is very difficult to assess, but our assessment is that it is pretty average, though Topspeed in the Racing Post takes a much more positive view. In any event there are any number of fillies in the race that may improve to take a hand. I could not recommend the Bolger horses at anything less than 8.4. Al Sharood put up a good performance at Newmarket and the six horses to emerge from the race have all improved by my rating. The time was pretty good and she rates a small interest.
